Plato & Atlantis – The Probability of Coincidence

 As a person I am always suspicious of coincidence. Whenever I hear this word, an alarm sets off in my head. In my book “Our Unknown Ancient Past: Thoughts and Reflections on the Unexplained Mysteries of Prehistory” I state that it cannot be a coincidence that Plato’s date of Atlantis’ destruction (9.600 BC) is spot on, coinciding with the abrupt end of the Younger Dryas (9.600 BC). Chances are that this is no coincidence, but what exactly are those chances? Here I would now like to elaborate on that.

 

Let’s agree that Plato being precise means that his date is plus/minus 100 years off from the actual date that the Younger Dryas ended. We could define this 200-year period to be even shorter but let us take the least favorable scenario. Now, there are 47 such periods within the range of 600 BC (when Solon heard the story of Atlantis from the Egyptian priest) up to 10.000 BC. Why take 10.000 BC and not 15.000 or 20.000? Well, Plato could have placed Atlantis even further back in time than 10.000 BC, however, again I am going with the least favorable scenario. So, the probability of Plato guessing the correct 200-year period is approximately 2%.

 

The probability is actually much lower than that if you factor in other parameters. Firstly, Plato’s description of the destruction of Atlantis fits quite well with what we know of the Younger Dryas’ end. The end of the Younger Dryas means a rapid melting of the ice and thus a rise of the sea level. Atlantis sunk under the sea. Plato tells us that the destruction of Atlantis happened in one day & night. The sea level cannot rise this much in 24 hours, but isostatic rebound, which is caused by the melting of a vast quantity of ice, can explain this. This process surely produces intense geological phenomena like the ones described by Plato (seismic activity, etc). This is exactly how Doggerland (another mini-continent, like Atlantis) sunk.

The image is from the Smithsonian Magazine

Secondly, given that human nature does not really change (1) and that they were using the decimal system like us (2), it is certain that people back then also tended to use round numbers. For example, we say “100 years from now” or “1.000 years from now” but we never ever say “90 years from now” or “900 years from now”. Plato, however, places the destruction of Atlantis 9.000 years before Solon’s time. But why 9.000 and not round it up to 10.000? What I am getting at is this: What is the probability of a person using a non-round number?

Thirdly, Plato tells us that the soil of Atlantis was extremely fertile, there were hot springs and there were rocks of red & black color. Plato is describing a volcanic soil. In fact, the Azores that are in that volcanic part of the world have the exact same properties, as I analyze in another post comparing Atlantis with the Azores. What are the chances Plato was on the spot on this too? A pretty low probability, if you ask me.

Finally, Plato tells us that Atlantis was outside the Pillars of Atlantis (modern Gibraltar), then, moving West, there were some islands and then there was a big continent which embraced the entire ocean (meaning the Atlantic). It is obvious that Plato is referring to America, but how could Plato have known about America? And, what interests us most, is the probability that Plato guessed this right as well.

 

Summing up, if you multiply 2% with the probability of Plato picking a non-round number, the probability of nailing the geological processes that were active at that time, etc, then the number becomes almost negligible. And please note that we went for the least favorable scenario, to begin with. We therefore conclude that it is impossible for Plato’s story to be a mere coincidence.